How blind box pull rates work, and what "1 in 144" really means
Pull-rate talk is usually wrong in one specific way: people read a case ratio as a personal promise. It is not. Here is what the numbers do and do not say, with the arithmetic shown.
The short version
A ratio like 1 in 144 describes how the factory packed a carton, not a countdown attached to your next box. At that ratio, opening 144 boxes gives you about a 63% chance of seeing the secret at least once — meaning roughly one in three people who buy a full master carton still miss it.
Per box or per case: the distinction that changes everything
Two numbers get mixed up constantly. A per-box rate is the chance that any single sealed box contains the figure. A per-case ratio is how the maker packed a sealed carton — for example one secret in every 144 boxes, which is how a 1 in 144 figure gets seeded into a master carton of twelve 12-box displays.
The per-case reading feels better because it suggests the secret is in there somewhere. Sometimes it is: if a carton is packed with exactly one secret and you buy the whole sealed carton, you will get it. But the moment a shop opens that carton and sells single boxes, the promise is gone. What you are buying then is a per-box draw at roughly the published ratio, and the box you pick has no memory of the ones already sold.
What the arithmetic actually gives you
Each box is an independent draw. The probability of seeing the figure at least once in n boxes is 1 − (1 − 1/odds)n. Run that for the ratios you actually see on pet and designer-toy lines:
| Printed odds | 12 boxes | 60 boxes | 120 boxes | 288 boxes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 in 12 | 64.8% | 99.5% | >99.9% | >99.9% |
| 1 in 24 | 40.0% | 92.2% | 99.4% | >99.9% |
| 1 in 72 | 15.5% | 56.8% | 81.3% | 98.2% |
| 1 in 144 | 8.0% | 34.2% | 56.7% | 86.6% |
Probabilities assume independent draws at a constant rate, which is the assumption a printed ratio asks you to make. Real cartons can deviate from the ideal packing, and a picked-over display deviates a lot.
Two useful readings of the same row. At 1 in 144, the expected number of boxes to your first hit is 144, but the median is about 100 — half of buyers hit it within 100 boxes, half take longer. And 288 boxes, twice the ratio, still misses about one time in seven.
Put a price on it
Odds become decisions when you multiply by the box price. For a 1 in 144 secret:
| Box price | Expected spend to first hit | Cost of a sealed 144-box master carton |
|---|---|---|
| $4.99 | ~$719 | ~$719 |
| $8.99 | ~$1,295 | ~$1,295 |
That is the number to hold against the resale price of the same figure opened. If the secret sells for $90 and the expected chase costs $719, buying it opened is not "giving up" — it is the cheaper route to the same shelf. Chasing only makes sense when you also value the boxes you open along the way, and when a sealed carton is genuinely available rather than a shop display someone has already picked through.
Use the margin calculator if you are on the other side of this and need to check whether a series works at a given retail price and pull-rate structure.
Who publishes real numbers
- Kidrobot prints per-design ratios on Dunny series listings — 2/24, 3/48, a super chase at 1/96, and one figure marked ??/??. That is a case ratio you can plan around, subject to the caveats above.
- Pop Mart states that a whole set holds 12 non-repeating boxes and that the chance of a secret varies by series. It does not publish a figure, so any percentage you see quoted for a Pop Mart secret is an estimate.
- Littlest Pet Shop (Basic Fun, Generation 7) confirms rarity levels exist and names its chase pets, but publishes no odds. Series 5, for example, names a Raccoon chase with a fuzzy tail.
If a maker prints nothing, the honest position is that the odds are unknown. Community estimates for six-figure series cluster around 1 in 72 and for twelve-figure series around 1 in 144, but these come from small samples pooled across brands, not from the factory.
How to use any of this
- Write down the most you are willing to spend before you open the first box, in money rather than boxes. Two $700 nights feel very different afterwards.
- Multiply before you buy: box price × the printed ratio is the expected cost of the chase. If the opened figure is cheaper, buy the figure.
- Buy a sealed carton only if the seller can prove it is sealed and the maker packed one secret per carton. Otherwise you are buying a picked display at carton prices.
- Treat duplicates as the default outcome. Decide in advance whether you trade them, gift them, or stop.
- Ignore the urge to "keep going because it must be close". Boxes do not owe you a hit, and the arithmetic does not remember your last ten opens.
Questions collectors ask
If I open 144 boxes, am I guaranteed the 1 in 144?
No. You have about a 63% chance. Guarantees only exist when a maker packs one per carton and you buy that carton sealed.
Does a shop display with 12 boxes always contain the full set?
Only when the maker says the set is packed without repeats. Some designer-toy sets are built that way; many cheaper pet lines are not, and the packaging says "assortment" rather than promising a set.
Are the odds better on the last box of a display?
No. Once the display is open and boxes have been sold, the remaining boxes are independent draws at the same underlying rate, unless the maker printed a case guarantee and the display is still sealed.
Why do people report wildly different rates?
Small samples. Opening 20 boxes tells you almost nothing about a 1 in 144 figure; the same is true of a 200-box YouTube run, which can easily miss a 1 in 144 entirely.
Sources
- Gauntlet Gallery, series numbering and case-ratio structure (per-case averages, not guarantees).
- everytoys, methodology for reading pull rates (only printing ratios the maker published).
- ThreeA Wiki, how cases and printed ratios work (Kidrobot ratio examples, Pop Mart 12-box sets).
- ToyWiz, LPS Series 5 listing (chase pet, no published odds), checked 11 November 2026.
- Probability figures on this page were calculated from 1 − (1 − 1/odds)n for independent draws.